Monthly Newsletter - NBA - January 2021
It’s hard to believe that a new NBA season has already begun, just 72 days after Lebron James and the Los Angeles Lakers won a hard-fought championship in the Orlando bubble. With minimal time to rest, recharge, train, and practice, it’ll be fascinating to see which teams thrive in this compressed regular season. Our first NBA newsletter is going to dive into the playoff contenders and pretenders in both conferences. We'll begin with the deep Eastern Conference.
CONTENDERS:
With reigning back-to-back MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo signing a supermax extension, the Milwaukee Bucks are again a contender in the East. Despite a fumbled attempt to bring in sharpshooter Bogdan Bogdanovic, the Bucks’ front office still managed to land a perfect Giannis-complement in Jrue Holiday. The price was steep (Eric Bledsoe, George Hill, two first-round picks AND swap rights to two others), but Holiday is a borderline all-star who should keep the Bucks at the top of the conference. To be honest, Jrue would have fit well with any contender that was reportedly pursuing him (Nets, Clippers, Nuggets, etc). He’s a solid shooter and playmaker, as well as a terrific defender who practically shut down Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum single-handedly in the playoffs a couple years ago. I’ve seen reports that Giannis worked on his low-post moves and free throw shooting the past couple months, which I think will be more impactful than if he kept trying to force the three-ball into his arsenal. Sometimes, you just need to focus on your strengths!
The Miami Heat are the defending Eastern Conference champs, after an inspiring and unexpected bubble run led by Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and a strong supporting cast. This team is DEEP, with young talent that should continue developing in 2021. I love their flexibility, switchability, and toughness demanded by the infamous Heat culture. In this shortened season, look for Miami’s depth and work ethic to give them an edge in the standings. I’m a huge Heat fan, and I have a feeling they’ll do everything they can to defend their conference title.
Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving will finally play together for the Brooklyn Nets, and I think they have a fantastic shot at making it all the way out of the Eastern Conference. Lots of folks are focused on the Nets’ stars and sleeping on the team’s depth, which has Caris Levert, Joe Harris, Jarrett Allen, and others in the rotation. Spencer Dinwiddie’s injury hurts, but the roster is loaded with other players ready to take his minutes. I love the way first-time head coach Steve Nash is delegating offensive responsibilities to guru Mike D’Antoni, while handing the team’s defensive strategy to Jacque Vaughn. I wish more NBA teams would do this, and I think Nash’s attempt could really pay off. The big question, of course, is whether KD can get to his former self – or at least to about 90%. If he can, I’d be comfortable putting big money on the Nets to win the East!
PRETENDERS:
The Boston Celtics are considered contenders for the East throne, and if Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown each take another big step forward while moving into their prime, look out. Boston used to have tons of depth, roster flexibility for the future, and a cupboard of draft assets – but the more I look at this team I wonder if their window is quickly closing. The top of the East is stacked, and I don’t love the Celtics’ chances without a couple more key pieces. Maybe Danny Ainge can work his magic at the trade deadline.
If James Harden gets his way, I think the best asset rumored to be in play is easily Ben Simmons. And if a trade happens, I guess I’d bump the Philadelphia 76ers to contender status. For now, I just can’t trust the core of Embiid/Simmons to take this team very far, even despite Daryl Morey’s excellent offseason moves to improve 3-point shooting with Seth Curry and Danny Green. And I definitely don’t believe that Doc Rivers can pep-talk the Sixers all the way to the pinnacle.
The Toronto Raptors lost front court depth in Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka, which ultimately bumps them down in this ranking. They still have fantastic depth, potential growth from young players like OG Anunoby and Terrence Davis, and one of the best coaches in the league in Nick Nurse. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Raptors claw their way to the Eastern Conference Finals, but I can’t quite imagine them winning it.
Next we'll head West, which feels more top-heavy than usual and is led by some familiar faces.
CONTENDERS:
The Los Angeles Lakers are defending champs and overwhelming favorites at most sportsbooks to repeat in 2021. Lebron James is timeless, Anthony Davis is thrilling, and the supporting cast has been bolstered by some terrific offseason signings. Losing key championship pieces like Rajon Rondo, Danny Green, Dwight Howard, and Avery Bradley would usually be crippling, but Rob Pelinka’s front office managed to add better players to replace them all. Marc Gasol is the perfect big to complement AD and LBJ, though his health is understandably a concern. The top two Sixth Man of the Year finishers from last season arrive, with Dennis Schroder and Montrezl Harrell looking to wreak havoc off the bench. And I think Wesley Matthews could end up being an X-factor – he’s a tough, veteran 3-and-D guy that the Lakers need to play well. I would put the Lakers in a tier of their own as the #1 contender to win the championship again this season.
If anyone can challenge the Lakers in the West, it’s their extra housemate/ugly stepsister/forgotten younger sibling, the Los Angeles Clippers. Kawhi Leonard was considered by some to be the best player on the planet after leading the Toronto Raptors to the title in 2019, and I’m sure he’s programmed to be on a mission this season. Paul George will be looking to prove himself after a rough Playoff P stretch, although I’m always wary of a player’s performance right after signing a huge contract extension. The loss of Montrezl Harrell is tough, but Serge Ibaka is a solid replacement. But the biggest change is the coaching shift from Doc Rivers to Ty Lue, which I believe could be a huge upgrade. The Clippers are the strongest West challengers to the Lakers’ throne, but I’d only bet on them if I got outstanding odds.
PRETENDERS:
I’d love to move the next two teams up a level, but the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz still seem to me like pretenders. As much as I love their top players, it doesn’t feel like Jokic/Murray or Mitchell/Gobert can reach the same heights as the LA duos. Denver and Utah mostly stood pat this offseason, so it’ll take another leap from their young cornerstones to make a big impact. The only other possibility to move up to contender status is if health becomes a factor for the older LA stars during the compressed season.
Two of my favorite players to watch are Damian Lillard and Luka Doncic, but unfortunately the Portland Trailblazers and Dallas Mavericks can’t be considered serious threats in the West this season. Portland made great offseason moves, nabbing 3-D extraordinaire Robert Covington along with solid role players in Enes Kanter and Derrick Jones Jr, but it still doesn’t feel like enough. Jusuf Nurkic was a beast in the bubble after missing most of last season, so maybe if he’s back at 100% the Blazers could have a chance. On the other hand, the Mavericks don’t really have a real chance, and they’re on this list simply due to Doncic’s brilliance. Swapping Seth Curry for Josh Richardson doesn’t do much for me, and I am doubtful that Kristaps Porzingis can be the second-best player on a championship contender. The Mavs were reportedly hoping to pursue Giannis next offseason, but now that he’s off the table it might be better to build some draft assets or take a gamble on younger players who could eventually pop next to Luka.
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A sincere thank you to T.J. for the article and our first ever newsletter published for AC. This is a big step towards what I envision AC to eventually become. A go to resource for sports enthusiasts looking for information, sharp analysis, and handicapping insights. Happy 2021 everyone!
- AC
