2024 NBA Finals Preview

As the NBA Finals between the Dallas Mavericks and the Boston Celtics looms, basketball enthusiasts are salivating at the prospect of witnessing a clash of titans. Both teams have navigated through the treacherous waters of the regular season and the playoffs, overcoming great opponents and player injuries to earn their spot in the NBA Finals. One can argue Boston had a much easier road to get here, but don’t discount them — they destroyed everyone that was in their path. They led the NBA in scoring differential in the regular season and the postseason. Since the February trade deadline, these were the two best teams in each conference so it’s exciting to watch two teams at the top of their games.

The Dallas Mavericks, led by the Luka Doncic, have been nothing short of spectacular this postseason. Doncic's wizardry on the court has been the driving force behind Dallas' success, as he consistently demonstrates an otherworldly blend of scoring, playmaking, and basketball IQ. His ability to dissect defenses with surgical precision, coupled with his knack for hitting clutch shots, makes him a nightmare for any opposing team. But the real reason for why the team has taken off in the postseason is because several other Mavericks have stepped up. Most notably, Luka’s running mate, Kyrie Irving — he has been incredible, playing the role of the primary closer in tight games heading down the stretch. Dallas’ wings in P.J. Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. have provided elite defense and timely shooting, and the two headed monster at the center position with Daniel Gafford and rookie Dereck Lively has been excellent. All of these pieces provide the Mavericks with a formidable lineup capable of competing with the best. They just went through the gauntlet of the West — 4th seeded Clippers, 1st seeded Thunder, and 3rd seeded Timberwolves on their way to the Finals. They are battle tested and ready.

On the other side of the court, the Boston Celtics present a loaded roster with depth at almost every position. Led by the dynamic duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, the Celtics boast a roster brimming with talent and versatility. They are arguably the only team in the entire NBA that can play 5 great shooters on the floor at the same time and not miss a beat on defense. They were the top 5 ranked scoring offense in the NBA throughout the regular season, while boasting a top 5 scoring defense. Truly an incredible, historic basketball team. Tatum's scoring prowess and Brown's versatility make them a lethal combination on both ends of the floor. After you get through Tatum and Brown, the Celtics (still) have borderline all stars to fill out the rest of the starting line up in Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, and Kristaps Porzingis. Holiday is an NBA champion and one of the fiercest perimeter defenders in the NBA. White is the glue that connects the entire offense together and also an All-NBA defender in his own right. Porzingis is a great pick and pop center that also provides elite rim protection — the caveat with KP is he is coming off a pretty significant leg injury that has sidelined him for over a month. It was smart for Boston to rest him because they were never truly challenged in the Eastern Conference playoffs. If he’s not moving around at 100% and fully healthy in this series, look for Doncic and company to really hunt down that weakness on defense.

As the series unfolds, all eyes will be on the battle between 25-year-old Doncic and 26-year-old Tatum, two of the brightest young stars in the NBA. In a league comprised and dictated by the superstars, their individual performances could very well determine the outcome of the series, as both players possess the ability to take over games and lead their teams to victory. Doncic's crafty ball-handling and step-back three-pointers will test the Celtics' defense, while Tatum's array of mid-range jumpers and tough finishes at the rim will keep the Mavericks' defenders on their toes. If Tatum can play Luka to a push, Boston should handle Dallas pretty easily and win the title. But if Luka is clearly the better player and making the bigger impact in these games, then the ultimate decider may very well rest on Irving versus Brown and the rest of the supporting cast. This is why the series is so tasty from an analytical standpoint, there are so many games within the game.

In addition to the marquee player matchups, the series is featuring several intriguing subplots that could shape the overall narrative. Kyrie is playing against his former team, Kristaps is playing against his former team, and many more storylines. The coaching adjustments and strategic maneuvers will play a crucial role in the series as well. Both coaches have been impressive during this playoff run but neither Kidd or Mazzulla have won a title as head coach, although the former does have one title as a player. It’ll be up to how they adjust and put their players in positions to succeed after the first couple of games. I believe Dallas is the more malleable team because of the brilliance of Luka Doncic. Flexibility and adjustability, especially during a game, is the reason I put this facet as an advantage for the Mavericks.

In the end, the Dallas Mavericks and the Boston Celtics are poised to deliver a Finals showdown for the ages, replete with jaw-dropping highlights, heart-stopping drama, and unforgettable moments. Whether it's Doncic draining a game-winning three-pointer at the buzzer or Tatum posterizing a defender with a thunderous dunk, basketball fans can expect to be treated to a spectacle worthy of the sport's grandest stage. So buckle up because the battle for basketball supremacy is about to begin. Boston will want to play fast, shoot a lot of threes, and simply out-talent the Mavericks. Dallas will want to slow the games down, limit the number of possessions, and keep the games close in the 4th quarters. Late game execution is where they excel and if they can get 4-5 games close down the stretch, they could be the ones hoisting the Larry O’Brien trophy. It will be very interesting to see which team is able to control the pace over the other.

Boston has been here before. They were just in the Finals two seasons ago, and have been in deep postseasons for almost the entirety of Tatum’s tenure in Boston. In NBA history, they have played the most playoff games in a 5-year stretch without winning a title. Can this be the year they finally breakthrough?

I’m not going to pick a series winner. There is not a mathematical edge with where the betting odds now. Boston -210 is a tad too pricey. But I do have a few betting looks…

-145 Series to go over 5.5 Games

-110 Jrue Holiday under 5.5 REB

-110 Jayson Tatum under 9.9 REB

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